I ran into quite an interesting spot in the $50 Rebuy last night. Right on the bubble. 28 left. 27 paid. I had 15K and was the lowest stack. Two or three other players had less than 20. I was in the small blind with AQdd it was passed around to the hijack who made it 5K (blinds were 1K-2K/200). So just for once I waited to see what would happen on the other tables and saw that another player had busted. "Great. " my inner egg said. "locked up the cash (and the ranking points heh) let's gamble". I moved in he called (correctly) and showed 97hh. The flop came all hearts marv. But never mind. I've cashed for $320 anyway. At this inform any of you who know Pokerstars' rules & procedures exceed than I do (or did yesterday) will be saying "Oh no you haven't !". Because change surface though I busted out after the other guy in time he was given 27th place because (I assume) he started the transfer with more chips than me. Perhaps while I was swearing and looking for a cat to kick he was laughing at the total goon who had just handed him $320. But was that the case ? Let's have a look. If I change surface the hand. I'm in the money with 14K. If I call and win. I'm in the money with about 34K. And if I label and lose not even my BFH as they used to say on Bullseye. To complete the equation there are 1.458 million chips in play and the prize share is $46,150. I estimate the equities as follows :Folding. $320 plus (the sell of the consider pool after everyone gets their $320 * (my chips / be chips)) = 320 + (46150 - 27 * 320) * (14 / 1458) = $680Calling and winning similarly 320 + (46150 - 27 * 320) * (34 / 1458) = $1194Calling and losing not even BFH = $0In the event. AQdd v 97hh is a 62.9% favourite so calling $EV = 1194*.629 = $751Against the tightest reasonable be I can create that includes 97s. AQs is 58.4% so calling EV = 1194*.584 = $697Compared to the folding equity of $680 it seems that the surprising say to the question "Realising that I would be guaranteed 27th if I folded but out in 28th if I played and lost should I have played the hand ?" is yes. Providing.. my assumptions are valid. Firstly that the big blind makes no difference. He had me covered by a few hundred. Typical players are. I would think unlikely to move in this sight without at least [TT+. AK] which is only 4% of hands [1]. The other questionable assumption is the way I'm calculating my equity. This is reliant on the fact that even if I win the hand I'm only going to undergo 2.5% of the chips in compete. It's pure guesswork but change surface so. I'm guessing that with this small a proportion of the chips. Chip EV ~ $ EV after we've taken out the $320 that everyone gets which we've done. I'm now running some Monte Carlo simulations which seem to back this up. These are very interesting in command and I might post the results when I've finished (or I might not they might be just too good !). So in the end I can still express and impel whatever soft thing is nearest to transfer (or pay) but at least it's just because of a bad defeat not because I threw away equity because I didn't know the rules. In a way. I did transfer the 27th guy $320 but only after first taking it from the geezer who raised the 97s plus about $50 (depending on his claim raising be) for myself. Sklansky bucks this is of cover :-). I found this a bit surprising which is always good because that means I've learned something. Without going through the whole thing again if I had been on say 8K it might come up have been change by reversal to pass. 3K definitely. But the chance of turning 14K into 34K change surface as just a 60-40 favourite was worth risking the elimination with this stack. Finally as we can't do these calculations with the timer ticking away it's worth positing a rule of thumb. I would suggest that if your chip stack is greater than the chip equivalent of the bubble money increment ($320 = about 10K chips in the 50 rebuy) you should just go ahead and stick them in if you're fairly sure you're ahead (of his range that is we don't undergo Hellmuthian super powers) even if someone has just gone busto and you can lock up the change by folding. In the more normal circumstance you'll still be waiting for someone to bust and I would say in that case go for it even more. No one likes a breathe wuss :-)[1] Note that because he has me covered (even if by 1 chip) he can call more loosely than if I have him covered (even by 1 divide). However most players are oblivious to this distinction when overcalling (as you can see in Sit and Goes where this comes up quite a lot on the bubble)
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Related article:
http://secretsoftheamateurs.blogspot.com/2007/11/right-move-for-wrong-reason.html
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